Future study of Iran and Afghanistan foreign trade

Document Type : Original Article

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University of Qom

Abstract

Foreign trade, as a driver of production and economic development and conflict with many variables, needs a lot of future research and investigation of possible scenarios in the future. The present article deals with the future study of foreign trade of Iran and Afghanistan as two neighboring countries with numerous cultural, economic and transit capacities. The purpose of the research is to identify the effective factors in the trade relations between the two countries, which at first using the method of mutual influence, the key factors affecting the future of trade between Iran and Afghanistan have been calculated, and then using the scenario method, the future scenarios in the foreign trade of Iran and Afghanistan has been reviewed and evaluated. The primary data was collected through the review of studies and the background of the research and in the form of a questionnaire, the importance of each factor was determined. Then, among the nineteen effective factors, four more important factors were identified, which are political instability in Afghanistan, Iranian governments' approach towards the West, Afghanistan's infrastructure, and finally the opportunities of the neighborhood. Then the different situations of these key factors were determined and the experts' opinions about the impact of these situations on each other were entered into the scenario wizard software in the uncertainty questionnaire. By analyzing the scenario wizard software, four scenarios with high compatibility about the future of trade between the two countries of Iran and Afghanistan were presented and then analyzed.

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Applied Researches in
Volume 1, Issue 2 - Serial Number 1
September 2024
Pages 69-90

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