Abstract:
The most important concern of planners and those involved in budgeting and its implementation is to reduce the gap and mismatch between estimates and performance (estimation risk). The main question of this research is: How can the characteristics of the Resistance Economy Index be effective in reducing the risk (estimation risk/unreasonable and unreasonable budget deficit) of budgeting in the defense sector? The methods and techniques used in the different stages of this research are: 1) The method used in the primary studies stage, library and the use of written sources. 2) In the information collection stage, the interview and news measurement method was used. 3) The content analysis method was used to analyze the findings and answer the research questions. The findings and results of the research indicate that from theoretical studies and literature, 14 types of budgeting risks were identified in the field of planning and budgeting in the defense sector. They are classified into two general categories and groups, including the environmental risk group outside the defense sector and the internal risk group (within the defense sector). The identified risks were classified into 4 risk groups in terms of the severity of the impact in the expert assessment stage: the most impactful, influential, least impactful, and no impactful. Also, regarding the strategies for reducing the aforementioned risks, we reached 16 effective solutions that have been grouped into 5 organizing themes: economic, political, security, organizational structure, and technological.
Keywords: Estimated risk, budgeting, defense sector, resistance economy