Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Master of Economics, Imam Hossein (AS) University, Tehran, Iran
2
Ph.D. in Economics, Imam Hossein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran
3
Faculty Member, Department of Economics, Imam Hossein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
This research focuses on economic sanctions as a central instrument of economic warfare in the contemporary world, aiming to quantitatively and accurately assess the impact of these pressures on the national security of targeted countries. The primary objective is to answer the question of how sanctions affect the objective components of national security (including military, political, and social dimensions). To measure this complex phenomenon, a composite National Security Index (NSI) was first designed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), based on variables such as military expenditure, political stability, and unemployment rate. Subsequently, by utilizing Panel Data for the period 1995 to 2024 and including countries such as Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Turkey, and South Africa, a regression model with Fixed Effects was estimated. The pivotal independent variable in this model is the standardized index of Sanction Intensity.
The research findings indicate a statistically significant negative relationship between sanction intensity and the national security index. The model estimation reveals that Sanction Intensity (β1=−0.45) is the most significant factor in reducing national security, with this relationship being significant at the 1% level. Conversely, GDP per capita growth (β2=+0.04) and trade openness (β4=+0.002) have positive and significant effects on improving national security, while rising inflation (β3=−0.009) also weakens security.
These findings confirm that sanctions directly challenge the security of nations by creating economic shocks and livelihood instability. Therefore, economic resilience—achieved through reducing oil dependency, developing domestic financial markets, and actively managing inflation—is a strategic necessity for safeguarding national security against external pressures.
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